Political Shifts Driven by Trump’s Engagement

Michael Barone, senior shifts political analyst at the Washington Examiner, uses the term “demotic” to describe Donald Trump, clarifying that he doesn’t mean “demonic.” Barone explains that the word “demotic,” meaning “of the people,” resonates due to Trump’s ability to connect with everyday voters. Barone believes this connection has accelerated two significant developments in American politics.

Immigrants’ Growing Alignment with the Republican Party

One of the key shifts Barone identifies is the increasing alignment of immigrant groups with the Republican Party. Historically thought to be immune to GOP appeal, immigrants are now showing greater support for Trump, particularly in states with higher immigration rates. In 2024, 16% of Black voters supported Trump, a significant increase from 8% in 2020. At the same time, support for Kamala Harris decreased to 83%, down from 91% for Joe Biden in 2020.

Impact of Trump’s Support in Key States

Barone notes a significant increase in Trump’s vote share in states like New York, New Jersey, Florida, Texas, Massachusetts, California, and Illinois. These populous, diverse states have seen higher immigration rates since the 2007-08 financial crisis. In New York, Trump’s support jumped from 37.7% in 2020 to 44% in 2024, while Florida saw an increase from 51.2% to 56%. Barone draws a direct correlation between Trump’s rising support and growing immigrant populations.

Trump’s Rhetoric and Immigrant Support

When Trump first ran in 2015, many believed his rhetoric would alienate immigrants, especially after his controversial remarks about Mexican immigrants. Barone, however, defends Trump against accusations of racism, pointing to his diverse background in Queens, New York. Despite inflammatory rhetoric, Trump’s anti-crime stance and business dealings have resonated with many immigrants. Barone attributes Trump’s immigrant support to dissatisfaction with city governance and policies like restrictive Covid-19 measures.

Trump’s Victory A Paradox of Broad Gains and Future Risks

The most striking aspect of Donald Trump’s victory over Vice President Kamala Harris was the broad consistency of his gains across the electoral map. Trump

The Erosion of Black Voter Loyalty to the Democratic Party

Another shift Barone observes is the erosion of strong Black voter loyalty to the Democratic Party. Historically, Black Americans overwhelmingly supported Democrats, but in 2024, this margin shrank to 77%, down from 91% in 2008. In Wisconsin, Trump’s support among Black voters rose to 21%, up from 8% in 2020, signaling a broader trend nationwide.

A Historical Shift in African American Politics

Barone traces the shifts political in Black voter behavior back to historical events. After the Civil War, Black voters supported the Republican Party, the party of Abraham Lincoln. This changed with the New Deal and the Civil Rights Act, solidifying Black loyalty to the Democrats. However, Barone suggests that the improved quality of life for Black Americans in recent decades has led some to prioritize issues like inflation, illegal immigration, and social policies over traditional party loyalty.

Comparing Black Voter Shifts to Catholic Voter Trends

Barone compares the shifts political in Black voter loyalty to evolution of Catholic voters in the mid-20th century. Once a tightly united group, Catholics began to diversify politically after the 1960s. Similarly, Barone predicts that Black voters will become more politically divided in the coming years.

Concluding Thoughts on the Changing Political Landscape

Barone concludes that the increasing political diversity within Black voters reflects broader societal changes. As he puts it, “The causes of Black unity are no longer as pressing. America has changed.” This transformation mirrors the broader evolution of American politics, with voter groups now more fragmented than ever before.